Trump Could Lose——And Still Win

IT IS INCREASINGLY LOOKING AS IF Joe Biden can beat President Donald Trump. The president seems more and more out of step with the national mood, from his handling of the pandemic to his response to racially biased policing, not to mention a wide array of other issues. Even in key swing states, Trump is losing ground.

乔·拜登(Joe Biden)似乎越来越能击败唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)总统。从应对大流行到对种族偏见的治安的回应，总统似乎越来越不符合国民情绪，更不用说其他许多问题了。即使在关键的摇摆州，特朗普也在节节败退。

摇  摆  州

摇摆州是美国大选中的一个特有说法，指的竞选双方势均力敌，都无明显优势的州，在历届大选中经常会倒向不同的政党，频频摇摆。这些“摇摆州”的选票一般都是竞选双方争夺的重点，尤其是“关键摇摆州”的选票，最终往往

可以决定大选的结果。在2016年美国总统大选中，特朗普赢得关键摇摆州佛罗里达等，而这些州的动向直接影响大选的结果。

For Trump, there are two broad pathways to maintaining power. First, we can already see a strategy designed to suppress voter turnout with the purging of registration rolls of large numbers of mostly urban voters; efforts to suppress mail-in ballots, which are more necessary than ever, given COVID-19; a re-election apparatus that is training 50,000 poll watchers for the purpose of challenging citizens’ right to vote on Election Day; and significant efforts to make in-person voting in urban areas as cumbersome as possible in order to have long lines that discourage people from exercising their voting rights.

对于特朗普而言，维持权力有两种主要途径。首先，我们已经看到一种旨在通过清除大量以城市为主体的选民登记册的方式来抑制选民投票的策略；鉴于新冠疫情，压制邮寄选票的努力比以往任何时候都更有必要;选举机构正在培训5万名投票观察员，以挑战公民在选举日的投票权利；为了防止人们排起长队阻碍他们行使投票权，他们做出了重大努力，使在城市地区的亲自投票变得尽可能麻烦。

The second pathway to subverting the election is even more ominous— but we must be cognizant of it because Trump is already laying the groundwork for how he can lose the popular vote, and even lose in the key swing states necessary for an Electoral College victory, but still remain president.

破坏选举的第二个途径更有预见性，但我们必须意识到这一点，因为特朗普已经奠定了他如何失去选票，甚至失去必要的关键摇摆州的选举团胜利后仍然是总统的基础。

This spring, HBO aired The Plot Against America, based on the Philip Roth novel of how an authoritarian president could grab control of the United States government using emergency powers that no one could foresee. Recent press reports have revealed the compilation by the Brennan Center at New York University of an extensive list  of presidential emergency powers that  might be inappropriately invoked in a  national security crisis. Attorney General William Barr is widely believed to be developing a Justice Department opinion arguing that the president can exercise emergency powers in certain national security situations, while stating that the courts, being extremely reluctant to intervene in a national security emergency, would allow the president to proceed unchecked.

今年春天，HBO播出了《反美阴谋》(Plot Against America)。这部改编自菲利普·罗斯(Philip Roth)的小说，讲的是一个威权总统如何利用无人能预见的紧急权力，夺取美国政府的控制权。最近的新闻报道披露了纽约大学布伦南中心汇编的一份广泛的总统紧急权力清单，这些权力在国家安全危机中可能会被不当动用。人们普遍认为，司法部长威廉·巴尔正在起草一份司法部意见，主张总统可以在某些国家安全情况下行使紧急权力，同时指出，由于法院极不愿意干预国家安全紧急情况，因此将允许总统不受约束地继续运作。

《反 美 阴 谋》

    《反美阴谋》是由大卫·西蒙、埃德·伯恩斯担任执行制片人、薇诺娜·瑞德、约翰·特托罗、安东尼·鲍伊、佐伊·卡赞、摩根.斯佩克特、艾奇·罗伯逊主演的HBO六集限定剧。

     该剧改编自菲利普·罗斯2004年出版同名小说，故事以新泽西州一个工人阶级的犹太家庭为视角，讲述公开支持纳粹、反犹太人的美国飞行员Charles Lindbergh成功在政界崛起并成为总统后，他将如何奉行法西斯主义及逼害美国里的犹太人。

Something like the following scenario is not just possible but increasingly probable because it is clear Trump will do anything to avoid the moniker he hates more than any other: “loser.”

像下面这样的情况不仅有可能发生，而且可能性越来越大，因为很明显，特朗普会不惜一切代价避免这个他最讨厌的绰号:“失败者”。

Trump actually tweeted on June 22: “Rigged 2020 election: millions of mail-in ballots will be printed by foreign countries, and others. It will be the scandal of our times!” With this, Trump began to lay the groundwork for a process by which he holds on to the presidency after clearly losing the election:

特朗普实际上在6月22日发推特称：“2020年大选被操纵:数百万张邮寄选票将由外国和其他国家印刷。这将是我们时代的丑闻!”有了这些，特朗普开始为他在明显输掉选举后继续担任总统的过程奠定基础:

Biden wins the popular vote, and carries the key swing states of Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by decent but not overwhelming margins.

拜登赢得了普选，并在亚利桑那州、威斯康辛州、密歇根州和宾夕法尼亚州等关键的摇摆州以体面但并非压倒性的优势获胜。

Having railed against the Chinese throughout the campaign, calling Biden “soft on China,” Trump immediately declares the voting was rigged, that there was mail-in ballot fraud and that the Chinese were behind fake mail-in ballots and other “election hacking” in the swing states that gave Biden his victory.

特朗普在竞选期间一直抨击中国，称拜登“对中国太软弱”。他立即宣布，选举被操纵，存在邮寄选票欺诈，中国人在假邮寄选票背后操纵，以及在让拜登获胜的摇摆州进行的其他“选举黑客攻击”。

Calling this a major national security issue, Trump invokes emergency powers, directing the Justice Department to investigate the alleged activity in the swing states. The legal justification for the presidential powers he invokes has already been developed and issued by Barr.

特朗普称这是一个重大的国家安全问题，他动用了紧急权力，指示司法部调查摇摆州的所谓活动。他所动用的总统权力的法律理由已经由巴尔提出并发布。

The investigation is intended to tick down the clock toward December 14, the deadline when each state’s Electoral College electors must be appointed. This is the issue the Supreme Court harped on in Bush v. Gore, ruling the election process had to be brought to a close, thus forbidding the further counting of Florida ballots.

调查的目的是在12月14日的最后期限前进行。12月14日是每个州选举团选举人必须被任命的最后期限。这就是最高法院在布什诉戈尔案中反复强调的问题，裁定选举过程必须结束，从而禁止进一步清点佛罗里达州的选票。

All four swing states have Republican controlled upper and lower houses of their legislatures. Those legislatures refuse to allow any Electoral College slate to be certified until the “national security” investigation is complete.

所有四个摇摆州都有共和党人控制着上议院和下议院的立法机构。在“国家安全”调查完成之前，这些立法机构拒绝批准任何选举团名单。

The Democrats will have begun legal action to certify the results in those four states, and the appointment of the Biden slate of electors, arguing that Trump has manufactured a national security emergency in order to create chaos.

民主党人将开始采取法律行动，确认这四个州的选举结果，并任命拜登选民提名，理由是特朗普制造了国家安全紧急情况以制造混乱。

The issue goes up to the Supreme Court, which unlike the 2000 election does not decide the election in favor of the Republicans. However, it indicates again that the December 14 Electoral College deadline must be met; that the president’s national security powers legally authorize him to investigate potential foreign country intrusion into the national election; and if no Electoral College slate can be certified by any state by December 14, the Electoral College must meet anyway and cast its votes.

这个问题会上升到最高法院，与2000年的选举不同，最高法院不会决定选举是否有利于共和党。不过，它再次表明，必须在12月14日之前完成选举人团投票;总统的国家安全权力是合法授权他调查外国可能对全国选举的入侵;如果12月14日之前没有任何一个州能够证明选举人团名单，选举人团无论如何都必须开会投票。

So what do we do as citizens to face the impending reality of The Plot Against America? We must “out” this scenario—and do so loudly and consistently. We have an imperative to build a “people’s firewall” that reaches deeply across the country and reflects public revulsion at the potential for Trump to undermine our entire democratic system of governance.

那么，作为公民，我们该如何面对迫在眉睫的《反美阴谋》呢?我们必须“摆脱”这种情况——而且要大声地、始终如一地这么做。我们必须建立一个深入全国各地的“人民防火墙”，反映出公众对特朗普可能破坏我们整个民主治理体系的反感。

Nancy Pelosi, the House speaker, should immediately ask the Judiciary, Commerce, Armed Services and Intelligence Committees to hold hearings on how steps can be taken to safeguard against this scenario, especially how to confront any invocation of emergency powers by the president.

众议院议长南希•佩洛西(Nancy Pelosi)应立即要求司法、商业、军事和情报委员会举行听证会，讨论如何采取措施防止这种情况发生，特别是如何应对总统动用紧急权力的情况。

The recent resistance of our military establishment is an encouraging sign and necessary component of the “people’s firewall.” The president has to know there will be overwhelming resistance to any post-election chaos to undermine our constitutional order. He must know that the “people’s firewall” will not yield to lawlessness. He has to be confronted with the reality that The Plot Against America must remain a work of fiction.

我们军方最近的抵抗是一个令人鼓舞的迹象，也是“人民防火墙”的必要组成部分。“总统必须知道，任何破坏宪法秩序的选举后混乱都会遭到压倒性的抵制。他必须明白，“人民的防火墙”不会屈服于无法无天。他必须面对这样一个现实，那就是《反美阴谋》必须是一部虚构的作品。